Business and Economics

Trend and Time Series Analysis of Daily New Case Report on COVID - 19 in Ethiopia: A Two-Year Daily Report Analysis

The outbreak of coronavirus disease was first reported in December 2019 and spreading rapidly across the world, the severity of this pandemic is rising in Ethiopia until January 2022, and it shows up and down fluctuation afterward. It remains a serious economic, political, and social challenge, with disastrous consequences for emerging countries like Ethiopia. Ethiopia has ordered the closure of schools and public gatherings, as well as the implementation of a variety of strict and preventative measures. The study's major purpose was to look at the overall trend of coronavirus disease cases and to build an adequate forecast model. Daily new cases reports of coronavirus disease between 13, March 2020 and 13 March 2022 at the Ethiopian Public Health Institute and the Minister of Health's official website were used for fitting the trend & time series ARIMA model. Trend analysis and Box Jenkins methodologies were employed. The automatic best differencing parameter was identified using R software, different candidate models were compared. A total of 469,184 newly confirmed coronavirus disease cases were reported from 13 March to 13 March 2022. A maximum number of new cases were reported on December 28, 2021, with 5185. A total of 172,576 number of a total number of cases with a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 1829 were reported in the first year. A total of 296,608 number of a total number of cases with a minimum of 14 and a maximum of 5185 were reported in the second year. Quadratic trend analysis and ARIMA (4, 1, 3) were finally confirmed as the optimal model that showed the pattern and modeled to the pandemic. The 60-day forecast showed that total coronavirus disease cases would reach between 469,498 and 483,349 at the end of May 2022. The up and down behavior of the pandemic in the study suggested that different prevention.