DAAGU INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BASIC AND APPLIED RESEARCH

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Trend and Time Series Analysis of Daily New Case Report on COVID - 19 in Ethiopia: A Two-Year Daily Report Analysis

Tigabu Hailu Kassa, Abdu Hailu Shibeshi and Getnet Mamo Habtie

ABSTRACT
The outbreak of coronavirus disease was first reported in December 2019 and spreading rapidly across the world, the severity of this pandemic is rising in Ethiopia until January 2022, and it shows up and down fluctuation afterward. It remains a serious economic, political, and social challenge, with disastrous consequences for emerging countries like Ethiopia. Ethiopia has ordered the closure of schools and public gatherings, as well as the implementation of a variety of strict and preventative measures. The study's major purpose was to look at the overall trend of coronavirus disease cases and to build an adequate forecast model. Daily new cases reports of coronavirus disease between 13, March 2020 and 13 March 2022 at the Ethiopian Public Health Institute and the Minister of Health's official website were used for fitting the trend & time series ARIMA model. Trend analysis and Box Jenkins methodologies were employed. The automatic best differencing parameter was identified using R software, different candidate models were compared. A total of 469,184 newly confirmed coronavirus disease cases were reported from 13 March to 13 March 2022. A maximum number of new cases were reported on December 28, 2021, with 5185. A total of 172,576 number of a total number of cases with a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 1829 were reported in the first year. A total of 296,608 number of a total number of cases with a minimum of 14 and a maximum of 5185 were reported in the second year. Quadratic trend analysis and ARIMA (4, 1, 3) were finally confirmed as the optimal model that showed the pattern and modeled to the pandemic. The 60-day forecast showed that total coronavirus disease cases would reach between 469,498 and 483,349 at the end of May 2022. The up-and-down behavior of the pandemic in the study suggested that different prevention mechanisms should be implemented to control and handles the contagious behavior of the pandemic and its devastating effect on economic, social, and political issues of the nation.

 

Keywords: ARIMA, COVID-19, Ethiopia, Forecast, Stationary, Trend

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Wild Edible plants study in a Dryland Ecosystem of Ethiopia

Mehari Girmay, Ermias Lulekal, Birhanu Belay and Kflay Gebrehiwot

ABSTRACT

The study was conducted in districts surrounding to Hirmi dryland, Northwestern Zone of Tigray region, to study the wild edible plant species (WEPs) type, use, threats, and conservation practices as well as associated community knowledge in the study areas. Six kebeles near Hirmi dryland were chosen to collect the necessary information, with 60 general informants and six key informants recruited. Data were collected through a semi-structured questionnaire, key informant interview, group discussion, and field walk. The collected data were analysed via descriptive statistics, preference ranking, and direct matrix ranking using their respective statistical and computer packages such as ANOVA and t-tests in SPS. A total of 41 wild edible plant species that belong to 35 genera and 28 families were recorded. The family Moraceae was represented by the highest number of species. Riverside was a good source (39%) of wild edible plants. 63% of the plants were eaten their fruit raw while it becomes riped. The informants identified Diospyros mespiliformis, Syzygium guineense, Vangueria madagascariensis, Ximenia americana, and Ziziphus spina-christi as the most abundant, diversified, and year-round wild food plants, accounting for more than 65% of WEP marketability. Deforestation, browsing, expansion of agriculture, over-harvesting, and timber production were the major threats to the wild edible plants. The community utilizes homegardening, awareness raising, selective fencing, and ecological restoration to combat these challenges. There was a significant difference (P 0.05) in the mean number of wild edible plants reported by informants of various ages, marital status, educational status, and experiences. There was no substantial difference between males and women, religion, or districts. Local peoples have indigenous knowledge and expertise in using and conserving wild edible pants, which necessitates participation in the government's sustainable forest management approach.

 

Keywords: Conservation, Ecological services, Hirmi, Indigenous knowledge, Wild edible plant

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Prevalence, associated factor and economic importance of major Metacystode in slaughtered cattle at Jimma Municipal Abattoir, Southwestern Oromia, Ethiopia

Getachew Derbew , Fuad Mohammed

ABSTRACT

A cross-sectional study was conducted to assess the prevalence and associated factor of major metacestode in slaughtered cattle and its economic importance at Jimma municipal abattoir from October 2019 to June 2020. Out of 384 bovine examined at Jimma municipal abattoir 197 (51.3%) at 95% CI of: 46.29-56.29) cattle were found positive for Metacestode, of which 191 (49.74%, 95% CI: 44.74-54.75) and 9 (2.34%, 95%CI: 1.22-4.45) were positive for Hydatid cyst and Cysticercous bovis, respectively. The highest prevalence of metacestode were found in Asendabo (66.67%) followed by Bilida (58.44%) and Agaro (57.89%) and lowest in Sarbo (43.94%) and Kefa (40%). The highest prevalence of hydatid cysts was observed in lung (58.64%), and liver (23.04%). While the highest prevalence of cysticercus bovis was detected in heart (33.33%). Furthermore, out of 190 hydatid cyst identified, the proportion of small, medium, large and mixed cyst were 13.16%, 7.89%, 4.21% and 74.74%, respectively. The prevalence of metacestode infection showed a significant difference (p < 0.05) between sex, age, and body conditions of the animals. A total of 528,155.32 ETB annual financial losses were calculated during the study period. In conclusion, the present study has revealed the presence of metacestode which have significant impact on the health and production of the cattle in the study area. Therefore, Control of the parasite directed both in the intermediate and definitive host should be carried out.

 

Keywords: Cattle, Factor, Jimma municipal abattoir, Metacestode, Prevalence

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Honeybees (Apis mellifera L.) Beyond Honey production: Pollination

Kflay Gebrehiwot

ABSTRACT

Honeybees (Apis mellifera L.) play a crucial ecological role as pollinators of many flowering plants and are the source of multi-billion dollars in several parts of the world. Pollination by honeybees take place in almost all major ecosystems of the world except in areas with extremely cold (Alpine/Afroalpine) and extremely hot (Desert) weather. Even though it is hard to estimate the overall value of honeybee pollination in crop production, several authors estimated it more than $1.6-$40 billion a year in United States of America alone. Surprisingly, this could be the annual budget of more than 5-10 least developed Countries. In Africa, bee pollination is sometimes estimated to be 100 times the value of the honey harvest, depending on the type of crop. Unfortunately, pollinators in general and honeybees in particular have extremely declined these days. Thus, every country has to incorporate policies to help conserve the pollinators maintaining pollination system healthy and productive. Creating awareness about the importance of honeybee apart from honey production especially to farmers could have a crucial value in maintaining honeybee diversity in particular and pollinators in general.

 

Keywords: Conservation, Ecosystem service, Honeybee, pollination value, Pollinators

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